The majority of all sports betting strategies are based around trying to find value. In theory, you should NEVER place a wager unless you’ve identified a selection that offers genuine positive value. This is because wagers that don’t offer any value will ultimately cost you money in the long run.
However, it’s fair to say that basic value betting can be considered a strategy in its own right. We love it because it’s so easy to use. All you need is a fundamental understanding of the concept of value, the ability to assess probability, and some sports knowledge.
- In the context of betting, value is the relationship between the odds of a selection and the probability of that selection winning.
- Positive value exists when the probability of a selection winning is greater than the IMPLIED probability of the odds.
- The implied probability of odds can be calculated using a simple formula, or by using an odds converter tool.
- The ACTUAL probability of selections winning cannot be calculated exactly since there are too many factors involved. However, it’s possible to use our sports knowledge to assess the likelihood of possible outcomes and assign estimated probabilities.
Armed with this knowledge, you’re ready to start using the basic value betting strategy. Here’s how it works.
To get started, we have to decide what event we’re going to bet on. This should obviously be something that we know a little about. The more we know, the more accurate we’re likely to be when it comes to assessing probabilities.
For the sake of this example, we’ll be betting on an NFL game between the Oakland Raiders and the New York Giants. We know these two teams well, and we figure that Oakland has a good chance of winning. After taking a few factors into account, we decide they have a 60% chance of getting the victory.